Before You Build: A Pre-Mortem Checklist for Nigerian Founders
How to test your startup idea against Nigeria’s toughest realities before spending your first ₦1 million
Nine out of ten Nigerian startups don’t die because of bad ideas. They die because the idea didn’t fit Nigeria.
A meal kit service burns through $800,000 because it didn’t account for how Nigerians prioritize spending. A quick-commerce platform shuts down after realizing Lagos traffic makes 30-minute delivery impossible. A crypto exchange folds when the CBN changes policy overnight.
These failures weren’t about poor execution. They were about Context Mismatch, building for a Nigeria that doesn’t exist instead of the one that does.
This is part five of our “Startup Models to Avoid in Nigeria” series. We’ve covered the four dimensions where Nigerian startups fail: infrastructure gaps, trust deficits, spending realities, and regulatory uncertainty.
Now we’re giving you something practical. A Pre-Mortem Checklist for startup validation in Nigeria that tests your idea against these realities before you build anything.
If you can score your idea honestly across these four dimensions, you’ll know whether to build, pivot, or walk away. This isn’t about killing good ideas. It’s about saving you from building the wrong thing in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Why Startup Validation in Nigeria Needs a Pre-Mortem
Post-mortems happen after failure. Pre-mortems happen before it.
In a post-mortem, you analyze what went wrong after you’ve burned through capital, lost your team, and disappointed investors. In a pre-mortem, you assume failure upfront and work backward to identify what would cause it. Then you design around those risks before writing a single line of code.
Nigerian founders face three problems that make pre-mortems essential:
High optimism bias. Everyone tells you your idea will work. Friends are supportive. Early customers are excited. Advisors see potential. But none of them are betting their money or careers on it. You are.
Sparse feedback loops. Nigeria doesn’t have the density of experienced operators who’ve built and failed multiple times. Silicon Valley has thousands of people who can spot a bad idea in five minutes. Lagos has dozens. That means you’re more likely to build something obviously flawed because nobody around you recognized the pattern.
Overreliance on Western models. Uber works in San Francisco, so delivery works in Lagos. Subscriptions work in New York, so they’ll work in Abuja. This logic kills startups every year because it ignores context.
Multiple ecosystem reports indicate that most Nigerian startups fail within the first 18 months. The primary cause isn’t lack of capital or technical skill. It’s building models that don’t survive Nigerian realities.
You can’t remove Nigeria’s constraints. Power will fail. Trust will be low. Customers will be price-sensitive. Regulators will change rules without warning. But you can test whether your model survives these constraints before you commit.
That’s what proper startup validation in Nigeria requires. Not just proving there’s demand, but proving your model can deliver despite the country’s realities.
The Four Context Dimensions You Must Validate
Every Nigerian startup faces four critical dimensions of risk. Your job is to honestly assess how well your model handles each one.
For each dimension below, you’ll find diagnostic questions, a scoring guide, and examples from our series. Be brutally honest. A low score doesn’t mean “give up.” It means “redesign or prepare for serious mitigation costs.”
Dimension 1: Infrastructure Reality Check
Core question: Can your model still work if power, logistics, or connectivity fail?
Nigeria’s infrastructure works intermittently at best. Electricity is unreliable in most areas. Roads are poor outside major cities. Internet connectivity drops frequently. Addressing systems don’t exist in many neighborhoods.
If your business model assumes these things work consistently, you’re building on optimism, not reality.
Diagnostic questions:
- Do you require always-on connectivity or instant data sync?
- Do you depend on home delivery or real-time location accuracy?
- Can your operations survive 24-48 hours without electricity?
- Have you budgeted 15-20% of operating expenses for infrastructure redundancy?
- Do customers need smartphones and reliable data to use your product?
Scoring guide (0-5):
0 – Critical dependency: Requires 24/7 power and reliable broadband internet to function at all. Any infrastructure failure stops operations completely. Example: Cloud-only SaaS with no offline mode.
1 – High dependency: Can operate with backup power but needs constant connectivity. Delivery depends on good roads and working GPS. Example: Real-time food delivery with 30-minute promise.
2 – Moderate dependency: Works with intermittent connectivity but customer experience degrades significantly. Some offline capability but limited. Example: Mobile app that syncs when online but has basic offline features.
3 – Hybrid model: Designed for both online and offline operations. Has pickup points as backup to delivery. Can operate during power outages with generators. Example: Pharmacy app with physical pickup locations.
4 – Low dependency: Fully offline-capable with agent networks. Physical presence reduces infrastructure needs. Sync happens opportunistically. Example: Agent banking network like Moniepoint.
5 – Zero dependency: Pure agent model or cash-based operations. No reliance on digital infrastructure. Works anywhere. Example: Traditional FMCG distribution using field agents.
Example: Chowdeck succeeds by focusing on specific high-density areas with relatively better infrastructure. Failed 30-minute delivery startups assumed Lagos-wide coverage was possible.
Dimension 2: Trust Readiness Check
Core question: Would a skeptical Nigerian user feel safe transacting with you on day one?
Trust is the biggest barrier to adoption in Nigeria. People have been burned by scams, poor service, and platforms that disappeared with their money. Asking Nigerians to trust you with prepayment, personal data, or financial information requires serious credibility building.
Diagnostic questions:
- Do users need to prepay before experiencing any value?
- Are your founders visible, verified, and publicly accountable?
- Do you have clear refund, dispute resolution, and customer support policies?
- Does your pricing feel transparent with no hidden fees?
- Can users verify you’re legitimate before committing money?
Scoring guide (0-5):
0 – Zero credibility: Anonymous founders, no physical address, prepayment required, no refund policy, no customer support. Example: New e-commerce store asking for bank transfers with no social proof.
1 – Weak signals: Founders have LinkedIn profiles but no track record. Basic contact information. Vague terms of service. Example: New fintech with unknown team asking for KYC documents.
2 – Minimal credibility: Founders somewhat visible. Basic support exists but slow. Some reviews or testimonials. Still requires significant prepayment risk. Example: Startup with small social media following, mixed reviews.
3 – Moderate trust: Recognizable founders or backing from known investors. Clear policies. Some users vouch for you. Risk is present but managed. Example: Startup backed by a known accelerator with transparent terms.
4 – Strong credibility: Licensed where required. Visible, accountable founders. Transparent pricing. Clear dispute resolution. Growing user base validates you. Example: Regulated fintech with proper licenses and public founder profiles.
5 – Institutional trust: Banking license, public company status, or backing from established institutions. Multiple years of operation. Strong brand recognition. Example: Traditional banks, Paystack, PiggyVest after years of operation.
Example: PiggyVest built trust through transparent licensing, visible founders, and a clear value proposition (automated savings with easy withdrawals). Failed prepayment e-commerce sites had anonymous operators and no recourse mechanisms.
Dimension 3: Spending Reality Check
Core question: Can your customers afford to keep using you, consistently, even when times are hard?
Nigerian household spending follows a strict hierarchy: food, transport, power, rent, healthcare, data, school fees. Everything else competes for what’s left, which is often nothing. You’re competing with generator fuel and groceries, not other apps.
Diagnostic questions:
- Does your pricing compete with essential expenses like transport, food, or power?
- Is your target customer segment large enough and consistently solvent?
- Is your payment model realistic for people with unpredictable monthly income?
- Can you operate profitably if 60-70% of users are inactive most months?
- Do users need to choose between your product and basic necessities?
Scoring guide (0-5):
0 – Pure luxury: Targets only ultra-wealthy Nigerians (maybe 50,000 people). High monthly subscription for convenience features. Zero value if income drops. Example: Premium concierge services, luxury meal kits.
1 – Aspirational spending: Targets “middle class” for non-essential convenience. Subscriptions range ₦5,000-15,000 monthly. First to get cut during tough months. Example: Premium fitness apps, entertainment subscriptions.
2 – Discretionary but useful: Provides real value but not essential. Pay-per-use works better than subscriptions. Moderate price sensitivity. Example: Online learning platforms, productivity tools for professionals.
3 – Useful with competition: Solves real problems but free or cheaper alternatives exist. Must prove superior value consistently. Example: Paid note-taking apps when free options available.
4 – Embedded in essential spending: Reduces costs on things people already pay for or enables income generation. Value is immediate and measurable. Example: Accounting software for businesses, inventory management tools.
5 – Survival-level essential: Core to income generation or drastically reduces essential costs. Users literally can’t afford to stop using it. Example: Mobile money for agents, POS systems for retailers, supply chain tools for distributors.
Example: Mobile money agents (Moniepoint, OPay) succeed because they’re embedded in essential commerce. They earn commissions on transactions people must make anyway. Meal kit startups failed because they were competing with weekly market runs and generator fuel.
Dimension 4: Regulatory and Policy Stability Check
Core question: Can your business survive a sudden policy change, license freeze, or regulatory crackdown?
Nigerian regulation moves in unpredictable cycles. The CBN can issue a circular on Friday that makes your entire business model illegal by Monday. The SEC can change licensing requirements while you’re mid-application. NITDA can introduce data localization rules that triple your compliance costs overnight.
Diagnostic questions:
- Are you dependent on a single regulator’s continued goodwill (CBN, NCC, SEC, NITDA)?
- Have you mapped all compliance requirements (NDPA, tax, licensing)?
- Do you rely on crypto, cross-border payments, or forex arbitrage?
- Do you have legal or compliance advisors before launch?
- Can you pivot to a compliant model within 90 days if regulations change?
Scoring guide (0-5):
0 – Pure regulatory arbitrage: Business only works because rules are unclear or unenforced. Banking on regulators not noticing you. No licenses, no compliance plan. Example: Unlicensed lending apps, unregistered crypto exchanges.
1 – Grey zone operations: Aware of regulations but betting they won’t be enforced strictly. Some compliance but major gaps. No backup plan. Example: Fintech operating without proper licenses but with “advisor relationships.”
2 – Reactive compliance: Will get licenses when forced to. Some awareness of requirements but no proactive preparation. Example: Growing fintech that plans to “figure out licensing later.”
3 – Basic compliance: Registered business, basic licenses obtained, aware of regulatory landscape. Some buffer for changes but limited. Example: Properly registered startup with initial licenses but no deep regulatory relationships.
4 – Proactive compliance: Licensed early even when expensive. Regular engagement with regulators. Compliance built into product development. Multiple market strategy as backup. Example: Flutterwave’s multi-country licensing approach.
5 – Regulatory partnership: Help shape regulations through early engagement. Multiple licenses across jurisdictions. Compliance is a competitive advantage. Can pivot quickly if needed. Example: Paga’s early engagement with CBN, Interswitch’s regulatory relationships.
Example: Crypto exchanges that assumed regulatory ambiguity would continue were forced underground or shut down when the CBN ban came in 2021. Properly licensed fintechs like Paystack and Flutterwave navigated regulatory changes successfully because they built compliance infrastructure early.
The Startup Pre-Mortem Scorecard
Now that you understand the four dimensions, here’s how to score your startup idea.
Rate your business honestly on each dimension using the 0-5 scale above. Add up your scores for a total out of 20.
The PlanetWeb Pre-Mortem Scorecard includes:
- Interactive scoring grid for all 4 dimensions
- Space to note your specific answers to diagnostic questions
- Auto-calculated total score with interpretation
- Comparison against sample startup profiles
- Mitigation planning section for each low-scoring dimension
- Recommended next steps based on your total score
How to Interpret Your Score
| Total Score | Model Viability | What This Means | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-7 | High-risk model | Your idea depends heavily on things Nigeria doesn’t provide consistently. Major structural problems across multiple dimensions. | Rework the core model or pivot entirely. Building as-is will likely fail within 18 months. |
| 8-13 | Borderline viability | Some dimensions work but critical gaps remain. You can build but expect high costs and slow growth while fixing weak areas. | Proceed only after developing concrete mitigation strategies for weak dimensions. Budget significantly more capital and time. |
| 14-17 | Promising model | Generally aligned with Nigerian realities. One or two areas need work but the foundation is solid. | Model is viable with strong execution. Focus resources on shoring up weak dimensions. |
| 18-20 | Resilient model | You’ve designed with Nigeria’s constraints in mind. Very low context mismatch risk. | Build with confidence. Your main risks are execution, competition, and market timing, not structural model failure. |
Visual Assessment: The Resilience Radar
A strong startup idea shows balance across all four dimensions. Here’s what different profiles look like:
Fragile Startup Profile:
- Infrastructure: 1
- Trust: 2
- Spending: 1
- Regulation: 2
- Total: 6/20 – High risk of failure
Typical Startup Profile:
- Infrastructure: 3
- Trust: 3
- Spending: 4
- Regulation: 3
- Total: 13/20 – Borderline, needs work
Resilient Startup Profile:
- Infrastructure: 4
- Trust: 4
- Spending: 5
- Regulation: 5
- Total: 18/20 – Well-positioned for success
How to Use the Scorecard Tool
The downloadable PlanetWeb Pre-Mortem Scorecard makes this process simple:
- Score each dimension 0-5 using the detailed criteria in this article
- Review your auto-generated interpretation to understand your overall viability
- Compare your bar chart to the Fragile, Typical, and Resilient profiles
- Note mitigation steps in the tool’s notes column for each weak dimension
- Share your score with a co-founder or mentor for honest feedback
Download the scorecard in your preferred format:
- Excel version (auto-calculating with bar chart)
- Printable PDF (1-page reference for offline work)
Comparison: Fragile vs Resilient Models
| Dimension | Fragile Model Example | Resilient Model Example |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | 30-minute food delivery across all of Lagos | Zone-based delivery with pickup options (Chowdeck) |
| Trust | Prepayment required, anonymous founders | Pay-on-delivery, licensed, visible founders |
| Spending | ₦15,000/month subscription for convenience | Transaction-based fees or tools that reduce costs |
| Regulation | Unlicensed fintech hoping for best | Licensed early, proactive regulator engagement |
Real Founder Examples: Scored
Let’s look at three actual startup ideas and how they’d score on this framework.
Example 1: Premium Meal Kit Subscription (Real Failure)
The pitch: Weekly meal kits delivered to busy Lagos professionals. ₦25,000/month subscription. Pre-portioned ingredients with recipe cards.
The scores:
- Infrastructure: 1/5 – Requires reliable cold-chain logistics, predictable delivery windows, functioning addresses
- Trust: 2/5 – Prepayment for weekly subscription, food safety concerns, new brand
- Spending: 1/5 – ₦25,000/month competes with rent, school fees, and fuel. First to cut during hard times.
- Regulatory: 3/5 – Basic NAFDAC requirements, but food safety compliance is manageable
Total: 7/20 – High Risk
What happened: Burned through $800,000 in 18 months. 85% churn by month three. Users said: “I had to choose between your subscription and generator fuel.”
What should have happened: Pivot to corporate lunch catering (businesses have budgets, predictable orders, pickup possible) or one-time meal sales rather than subscriptions.
Example 2: Agent Banking Network (Actual Success)
The pitch: Recruit agents in neighborhoods to provide cash-in, cash-out, bill payments. Agents earn commission on every transaction.
The scores:
- Infrastructure: 5/5 – Pure agent model. No infrastructure dependency. Works anywhere with foot traffic.
- Trust: 4/5 – Licensed by CBN, physical agents in communities, face-to-face transactions build trust
- Spending: 5/5 – Enables essential transactions (bill payments, remittances). Agents earn income. Self-sustaining.
- Regulatory: 5/5 – Properly licensed, engaged with CBN early, compliance built-in from day one
Total: 19/20 – Resilient
What happened: Moniepoint, OPay, and PalmPay grew to millions of users and billions in transaction volume. Model survives because it’s designed for Nigerian realities.
Example 3: B2B Inventory Management Software (Promising)
The pitch: Cloud-based inventory tracking for small retailers. ₦5,000/month subscription. Helps reduce shrinkage and stockouts.
The scores:
- Infrastructure: 3/5 – Requires internet for sync but has offline mode. Works on basic smartphones. Some infrastructure dependency.
- Trust: 4/5 – Targets businesses (higher trust threshold). Free trial period. Clear ROI demonstration.
- Spending: 4/5 – Business expense (not personal budget). Pays for itself by reducing losses. Clear value proposition.
- Regulatory: 4/5 – Standard business registration. NDPA compliance manageable. No special licenses needed.
Total: 15/20 – Promising
What this means: Viable model with strong execution. Main challenges are sales cycle length and proving ROI quickly. Offline functionality and business focus are strong advantages.
Red Flags That Mean “Don’t Build It Yet”
If you scored low, you’ll be tempted to rationalize it. Here are the most common excuses founders make and why they’re dangerous:
“We’ll fix infrastructure problems with better logistics.”
No, you won’t. Infrastructure is a constraint, not a problem you solve. You can work around it (pickup points, offline modes, agent networks) but you can’t fix Nigeria’s power grid or road network with better software.
Reality check: Design for infrastructure failure from day one. Don’t bet on fixing what governments couldn’t fix in decades.
“Once users try our product, they’ll trust us.”
Trust comes before trial in Nigeria, not after. If users don’t trust you enough to try once, you never get to prove yourself.
Reality check: Build credibility before asking for transactions. Use licensing, visible founders, free trials, money-back guarantees, and social proof.
“Nigeria’s middle class is growing fast.”
The data says otherwise. Inflation is outpacing income growth. The middle class is shrinking, not expanding. Building for aspirational spending is building on hope, not reality.
Reality check: Build for survival spending or business budgets. Target the wealthy if you want discretionary spend, but know that market is maybe 50,000-100,000 people, not millions.
“The government will regulate our sector soon, creating clarity.”
Nigerian regulation moves in unpredictable cycles. Even when rules come, they often make things harder, not easier. Banking on future regulatory clarity is betting against history.
Reality check: Get licensed proactively. Build compliance infrastructure early. Have backup plans for sudden policy changes. Don’t bet your business on regulatory optimism.
How to Use Your Scorecard Results
A low score doesn’t mean abandon your idea. It means adapt it or prepare for much higher costs and longer timelines.
If you scored 0-7 (High Risk):
Stop building immediately. Spend 2-4 weeks redesigning your core model. Ask:
- Can I make this work offline or with agents?
- Can I eliminate prepayment requirements?
- Can I target businesses instead of consumers?
- Can I get licensed properly before launch?
If you can’t get to at least 10/20 with reasonable changes, seriously consider walking away or finding a different problem to solve.
If you scored 8-13 (Borderline):
Proceed with extreme caution. Your weak dimensions will cost you. Budget 2-3x more capital than you initially planned. Plan for 18-24 months to product-market fit instead of 6-12.
Mitigation strategies by dimension:
- Low infrastructure score: Start with limited geography, invest in offline capabilities, build pickup networks
- Low trust score: Get licensed early, make founders visible, offer refund guarantees, start with free tier
- Low spending score: Switch to transaction fees instead of subscriptions, target businesses, enable income generation
- Low regulation score: Hire compliance advisor, engage regulators proactively, build backup models
If you scored 14-17 (Promising):
Build, but stay focused on shoring up your weak areas early. Don’t ignore the dimensions where you scored 2-3. Those will become problems at scale.
Use the checklist with your team quarterly. As you grow, realities change. What worked at 1,000 users might not work at 100,000.
If you scored 18-20 (Resilient):
You’ve thought through the hard problems. Your main risks now are execution, timing, and competition, not structural model failure.
Keep using this framework as you add features or enter new markets. A model that works in Lagos might fail in Kano. Context changes with geography and customer segments.
Show Your Work to Investors
Serious investors want to see founders who understand market realities. Including this scorecard in your pitch deck shows:
- You’ve done realistic analysis, not just TAM calculations
- You understand Nigerian context deeply
- You’ve thought through risks proactively
- You have mitigation plans for weaknesses
Present it this way: “We scored 15/20 on PlanetWeb’s Context Mismatch framework. Here’s how we’re addressing our weak areas. We update this score quarterly.”
Investors respect founders who see problems clearly. They run from founders who pretend problems don’t exist.
Frequently Asked Questions
Build for the Nigeria That Exists
Nigerian founders don’t need newer ideas. They need better filters.
Proper startup validation in Nigeria isn’t about proving there’s demand. It’s about proving your model can survive the country’s realities. You can’t change Nigeria’s infrastructure overnight. You can’t make people trust digital platforms instantly. You can’t expand disposable income through force of will. You can’t predict regulatory changes with certainty.
But you can design businesses that work despite these constraints. You can choose models that align with reality instead of fighting it. You can test your assumptions before they cost you millions.
This Pre-Mortem Checklist gives you that filter. Use it honestly. Don’t game your scores. Don’t rationalize low numbers. Don’t ignore weak dimensions hoping they’ll fix themselves.
Score your idea. If it’s below 12, redesign it. If it’s 12-14, proceed with serious mitigation plans and extra capital. If it’s 15+, build it and focus on execution.
The best Nigerian startups weren’t built by founders with the most resources or the smartest technology. They were built by founders who understood context and designed accordingly.
Build for the Nigeria that exists, not the one you wish existed. That’s how you survive long enough to win.
Run Your Pre-Mortem This Week:
✅ Download the PlanetWeb Pre-Mortem Scorecard:
✅ Score your idea honestly – Rate yourself across all four dimensions using the 0-5 criteria in this article
✅ Share your insights – If you scored your idea, tell us on LinkedIn or X using #NigerianStartupReality
✅ Get the full framework – Read all four Context Mismatch articles to understand each dimension deeply
✅ Stay updated – Subscribe to our newsletter for the next article: “When to Pivot or Fold”
This article is part 5 of our “Startup Models to Avoid in Nigeria” series.
Read the complete series:
Part 1: 7 Startup Mistakes Nigerian Founders Should Avoid
Part 2: Startup Models to Avoid in Nigeria (Pillar Article)
Part 3: Infrastructure Gap – Why Nigerian Startups Must Design Around Broken Systems
Part 4: The Trust Deficit – Why Users Don’t Trust Digital Platforms
Part 5: Spending Realities – Understanding the ₦1,000 Problem
Part 6: Regulatory Uncertainty – Navigating Nigeria’s Unpredictable Policy Environment
Up next in this series: When to Pivot or Fold: Exit Strategies for Nigerian Startups
Help Us Shape Smarter Startup Thinking
At PlanetWeb, we share practical ideas to help founders avoid wasted effort and build with the Nigerian market in mind.
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Have you scored your startup idea? What surprised you most about your results? Let us know in the comments.
